These are just my thoughts. Most will be on climate science. Don’t put much stock in them as I’m not an expert. Trust the peer reviewed science instead. If you find mistakes or errors, please reply and let me know.


Amazingly Consistent trend in CO2

Why is atmospheric CO2, of all the climatic variables, so incredibly predictable? There’s a seasonal variation, which can be understood from the distribution of vegetation covered land on the planet, but the seasonal variation is superimposed on a near perfect quadratic. I calculate a standard deviation of less than 1ppm from this trend, which has existed for at least 60 years.

To model the trend I used a least squares fit of the 1958-2000 monthly data (Keeling Curve) to a second order polynomial, i.e. a quadratic curve. For the seasonal variation I averaged the difference from the quadratic for each month. I also noticed and included that the magnitude of the seasonal trend gradually increased, maybe because it depends on the amount of in CO2 the atmosphere. The following graph compares the 225 monthly measurements at Mauna Loa since the year 2000 with the “predictions” from the model trend based on the 502 monthly measurements from 1958 to 2000. The 1958 to 2000 model “predicts” the measurements since the year 2000 to within 1 ppm.

I’m curious when the Keeling Curve will begin to deviate from this persistent trend.